The candidates for President of the Republic, Samaras and the critical vote, Karamanlis (with the media moguls), the Venezuela Alliance, the waters of GEK TERNA

Hello, we’ve just come out of a satisfying long weekend for the October 28th holiday with a lot of traffic on the national highways as well as the Attiki Odos, which now inevitably needs to be expanded in the coming years because, simply put, it can’t hold us all anymore. I think the most interesting topic in the coming days will come from the other side of the Atlantic, where literally no one knows who will be the new POTUS, though the markets have already started, for a week now, leaning towards Trump, who—as expected—has taken it to the max in ramping up tensions, because apparently, that seems to work better for him. Only ten days remain to find out what dawns for us as Europe, and as Greece too, although allegedly Kamala would be something a bit more familiar and convenient for us.

The President of the Republic

In Athens, the hottest topic of discussion is what K.M. will do regarding the Presidency of the Republic, even though we have around four months ahead for the election. This is because the topic is closely linked to the next internal party match with the Samaras-Karamanlis duo, who now act as a unified front against Mitsotakis. Of course, this front could break if the rumors were true that at some point the Prime Minister had decided to propose Karamanlis for President to put an end to internal opposition before the elections. But personally, I haven’t heard anything to suggest that such a thought ever existed. Certainly, there may be other ideas about figures who could weaken this front, which, naturally, isn’t based on ideological differences between the two former prime ministers and the current one but rather on personal, possibly even historical grudges. This is also measured in terms of the number of MPs who say, “Why do you have 19 non-parliamentarians, and quite a few from PASOK at that, and not us? When do we get a taste of power?”

Figures

There are ideas about figures for the position of the President, although my source tells me that K.M. has not made a decision—most likely, I’d say, and even if he had, there’s no chance he’d tell us. There aren’t many party figures with broader stature; for example, the Speaker of the House, Tasoulas, is one of those whom the 158 ND MPs would hardly oppose voting for. Beyond that, if you’re seeking broader support, you might look at figures like Stournaras, who, due to Novartis, Samaras and his small circle would find it hard to say “no” to, though the also small Karamanlis faction wouldn’t vote for him. Now, don’t take these specific names literally, because, let me remind you, in 2019, Mitsotakis found a Supreme Court judge, Sakellaropoulou, and that settled the issue. Yes, and they even say she’s still in play as a possibility, that the prime minister may even re-nominate her to send a message within his party that “he calls the shots,” but that doesn’t strike me as the most likely outcome.

Expulsions?

Before we get to the election of the President, however, we have another challenge, which is the vote on the budget. If K.M. wants to push it, he’ll send a “directive” to dissenters, especially to Samaras, saying, “Folks, anyone who doesn’t vote on critical government laws, like the budget, is not part of the ND parliamentary group.” But there’s still some road to go before we get there.

Karamanlis with moguls?

Now, let me share some spicier gossip, though I can’t confirm these juicy details because, frankly…they’re unconfirmable. Nevertheless, there’s buzz in the circles about a meeting between Karamanlis (the Rafina one) and two media moguls, of the “godfather” type, as he used to call big business interests (business and channels) in his younger days over legendary souvlakis at Bairaktari’s in Monastiraki. You may ask, “Is there anything wrong with this?” Of course not, not at all—anyone who wants can eat and mingle (or “chit-chat,” as K.M. says) with whomever they fancy, obviously.

The “Venezuela Coalition” and Mitsotakis

Strange games seem to be at play by EPP President Manfred Weber, who has opened a line with far-right parties (Eurosceptics, Patriots, etc.). This, of course, is causing a lot of comment in Brussels because it stands in contrast to the majority secured by VDL (with Social Democrats and Liberals). It started with a resolution on the Venezuelan elections, and it appears that several leaders, like Mitsotakis and Polish Tusk, are annoyed with Weber’s stance, as he’s been making strange “moves” for a while now, effectively isolating the EPP’s Secretary General, Thanasis Bakolas.

Results time, eyes on Eurobank

As the market seeks catalysts to change the poor image of recent weeks, the nine-month financial results of systemic banks are coming to the forefront. It all starts on Friday, 1/11, with announcements from Piraeus Bank. A few days later, on November 7, National Bank follows, and on the same day, as per its updated financial calendar, Eurobank. Alpha Bank completes the quartet with announcements on November 8. The market and investors are waiting to see how the banks have handled and performed across several areas, including interest income, deferred tax reduction plans, loan performance, red loans, annual target achievement plans, etc. Should the nine-month figures be strong (as expected), there could be a market turnaround, as bank stocks have recently weighed down the market and are entirely out of sync with the generous target prices periodically provided by foreign firms and local brokers. The market’s attention is focused on Eurobank, as it will present the first balance sheet consolidating Hellenic Bank Cyprus, and the market wants to assess to what extent the figures have changed and improved. Analysts estimate that the four systemic banks will show a net profit of €1.15 billion, stabilization of “non-performing loans and exposures” at 3.6%, and a marginal loan increase of +0.3%.

November signals awaited for Elpedison

The procedures for the final bidding between Hellenic Energy and Italy’s Edison, with Elpedison as the prize, are moving much slower than initially expected. The split, which was finalized months ago (with terms set for one side or the other to exit the company’s equity structure), has faced repeated delays. Since last summer, there were strong rumors that both sides had agreed to move forward. However, here we are, two months from year’s end, and still no “white smoke.” Some reports indicate November as the month when movement on the company’s fate is expected. Soon, it’s anticipated that documents related to the bid and counter-bid process (based on the valuations conducted) will be signed, if they haven’t already, allowing each side to bid to buy or sell the other’s 50% share. Elpedison is the fourth-largest electricity provider in the retail market, with over 300,000 customers and two natural gas power generation units. There are also plans for a new 826 MW power unit in Thessaloniki, though the investment decision is still pending. The company has also initiated steps to install an FSRU in Thessaloniki, recently receiving authorization from the Energy Regulatory Authority to deploy a second ship at the LNG terminal that will house a floating liquefied natural gas storage unit.

New branding and business model for Intrakat

High expectations surround Intrakat in the market, as this evening, at a special event at the Hellenic Cosmos center, the group’s CEO, Al. Exarchou, will unveil the new brand name for INTRAKAT, along with the group’s new business model and structure, and will also announce new business deals. Tomorrow, Wednesday, a teleconference will follow for analysts and institutional investors.

From energy to hotels

Tasos Papanagiotou, son of the late former minister and PASOK official Kostas Papanagiotou, has made an interesting mark in business despite his young age. Among the first to invest in the newly deregulated energy market, he founded Watt+Volt, which over the past decade grew into one of the strongest alternative energy providers, capturing significant market share. This success drew the attention of Metlen, which, through its acquisition of Watt+Volt in August 2022, gained a portfolio of 200,000 customers, significantly boosting Protergia’s position. The deal closed at €36 million, of which €20 million was paid in cash and the remaining €16 million in Metlen shares, priced at €17 per share. However, at the end of last year, Tasos Papanagiotou made a “comeback” in the domestic electricity market with a new corporate entity, “Enerjex Trading S.A.,” established on November 9, 2023, with an initial capital of €60,000, focused on electricity trading services. Recently, he decided to branch out into the tourism sector. As this column reports, the company “Fidiou Hotel-Tourism” was established on October 22, with an initial capital of €200,000. The company, based in Maroussi, is focused on hotels and similar accommodations, short-term property rentals, etc. The capital was provided by “Greenaura Ltd,” and the new company will be managed by a single-member board (Advisor – Manager), specifically Anastasis Papanagiotou.

GEK TERNA in the water sector

During the extraordinary general meeting of GEK TERNA, G. Peristeris made special mention of the strategic expansion plan for the group and water resource management projects, which he said, “we have focused on dynamically.” Just a few days ago, GEK TERNA was selected as the provisional contractor for a €220.5 million irrigation project on the Nestos River. This particular PPP project is the largest within the “Water 2.0” program, totaling over €4 billion, aimed at irrigating over 1.3 million acres nationwide. The group is pursuing several water management projects and was recently chosen as the provisional contractor for a dual PPP project in Hohlakia, Sitia, and a dam in Ierapetra, valued at €75 million.

Behind the (rail) lines…

Last Thursday, a contract was signed between the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport and the European Investment Bank (EIB), which will finance and also provide expertise to transform OSE into a modern, new Railway Infrastructure Management Company. The intriguing part of this modest ceremony was the absence of OSE’s CEO, Panagiotis Terezakis, who would logically be the most relevant figure to attend. In contrast, Christos Palios, CEO of ERGOSE, was present and greeted everyone in attendance. The Jerusalem insiders are well aware of the conflict between Terezakis and Palios, as well as the plan for OSE to absorb ERGOSE. The question now is what choices the Ministry of Infrastructure will make regarding the key personnel for the next phase and whether the presences and absences at this event signal the ministry’s preferences.

New Golden Visa business ventures

For the past two months, since September 1, the real estate market in Greece has been operating under significant changes to the Golden Visa program. In Attica, Thessaloniki, Mykonos, Santorini, and islands with over 3,100 residents, the new increased threshold of €800,000 applies for residence permits under the Golden Visa program. However, there is an exception that opens new pathways for those wanting to offer Golden Visas under the previous €250,000 threshold: Real estate professionals are identifying closed businesses and struggling shops, purchasing them, changing their classification from “commercial” to “residential,” converting them into lofts or small apartments, and then reselling them with a Golden Visa option at the €250,000 value. The only snag, as often happens in Greece, is the lack of a necessary “clarifying circular.” While a circular exists regulating protected properties (conversion to residences must be completed before sale), there are still no clarifications for “industrial” or “commercial” spaces. Nevertheless, purchases of stores for conversion into apartments are on the rise.

A tough week on the Stock Exchange

The General Index starts today’s session at its lowest point in the last 2.5 months, while the Banking Index is already down to the lows of January 29, marking a 9-month low. The four systemic banks, absolute drivers of this year’s rise, are now pulling the entire market down as it desperately seeks help from foreign investment inflows, which, however, are yet to appear. The international environment is complex. The “fear” index, VIX (market volatility index), is at 19.14 today, with 20 or above signaling the “first alarm” for institutional investors’ stop-loss moves. In Europe, analysts are focusing on the “big patients” (Germany, France) and the potential Trump victory in the U.S. Goldman Sachs has published a list of 22 European stocks exposed to U.S. tariffs, which are expected to “increase significantly and selectively” if Republicans win. The GS basket of 22 includes shares of Diageo, Porsche, Mercedes, Adidas, and others. Against this backdrop, the analysts’ rave reviews of the Greek economy and the warm reception received by Greek bank representatives in Washington have taken a back seat.

Food prices are rising, everywhere in the world

Greeks complain – and rightly so – about supermarket prices. Official data shows global food prices rose by +2.1% year-on-year in September, marking the highest rate of increase in the last 18 months. The UN’s Global Food Price and Agriculture Index also rose +3% in September, making the biggest monthly jump since March 2022. Sugar prices increased by +10.4% year-on-year and meat by +4.8%. Vegetable oil prices also rose by +4.6%, reaching their highest level since early 2023. To put the cost of food in perspective, global food prices today are +21.4% higher than in January 2020. In simple terms, those who believe that the monster of inflation has been defeated probably haven’t read the myth of the Hydra.

Bankers are seeking the “neutral interest rate,” governments the new trade

The common theme of all the discussions held in Washington during the fall IMF and World Bank meetings was “geopolitical turbulence,” which most believe will intensify if Trump is elected in the U.S., a scenario now seen as increasingly likely. Central bankers are desperately seeking the golden balance in the cost of money, the “neutral interest rate,” which – as of today – they place at 3.5% for the dollar and 2.5% for the euro. The structure of global trade is changing; “friendshoring” is prevailing, and Artificial Intelligence is creating new dynamics, giving the U.S. economy a fresh advantage. Mexico is the “new China” on the American continent, growing rapidly and supplying cheap products to the U.S., which is still fighting inflation. Finally, it was noted that people detest the over-regulation of markets and economies, while Donald Trump appears to have found a way to manage the public’s anger over high prices and massive inequalities.